Manhattan’s luxury condominium market — defined as closings priced at $4 million and above — recorded 213 deals in Q1 2026, a 31 percent drop from the 309 deals recorded in Q1 2025, according to Olshan Realty’s quarterly compilation released Monday. It was the slowest first quarter since the pandemic-shortened Q1 2020.
Olshan’s compilation shows total dollar volume of $1.94 billion across the 213 Q1 deals, compared to $3.31 billion across 309 deals a year earlier — a 41 percent drop in dollar volume.
What’s driving the slowdown
Halstead Property’s separate Manhattan Quarterly Report shows new-development absorption at 8.4 months at the end of Q1, the highest figure since Q3 2020. A balanced market is generally defined at 4 to 6 months.
“This is what a buyers’ market looks like,” Donna Olshan, the firm’s president, said in the report. “The luxury inventory is up 18 percent year-over-year, the time on market is up 12 days, and the deal count is down a third.”
Three factors emerge in interviews with brokers across nine firms.
Rates. The 30-year mortgage averaged 6.94 percent on Q1’s last business day, per Freddie Mac, up from 6.61 percent at the same point in 2025. Jumbo financing for the $10–$25 million tier has tightened materially.
The pied-à-terre tax conversation. Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal’s renewed push for a graduated pied-à-terre tax in Albany has produced what one Compass dealmaker called “a real chill on second-home buyers from Texas and Florida.” The bill, S.2787-A, would impose a 0.5 percent to 4 percent annual surcharge on units valued above $5 million held by non-resident owners.
The supply overhang. Closings at One Park Tower, 432 Park Avenue, and Five World Trade Residential collectively cleared 47 units in Q1 — the same three buildings cleared 89 in Q1 2025.
The deals that did close
The quarter’s largest closing was a $58 million combination at 220 Central Park South. Three other closings cleared $30 million: a duplex at 432 Park Avenue ($41M), a unit at 220 Central Park South ($38.6M), and a townhouse at 11 East 70th Street ($31M).
The contract-signing pace has improved modestly in April. Deals signed in the first three full weeks of April are running 8 percent above April 2025 levels — the first month of year-over-year growth since November.