The top of Manhattan’s housing market is holding its ground. According to Olshan Realty’s weekly luxury report, 133 contracts were signed for apartments and townhouses asking $4 million or more between April 14 and May 10, 2026 — slightly ahead of the 130 signed in the same four weeks a year earlier. Total asking volume rose about 10% to roughly $1.12 billion.

What the tracker is

The Olshan report is one of the most-cited instruments in New York real estate, and it measures something specific: every contract signed in Manhattan for residential property asking $4 million and above, tallied week by week. It counts condos, co-ops, condops and townhouses. Crucially, it counts signed contracts — deals just struck — rather than closed sales that settle months later, which makes it a leading indicator of luxury demand. Olshan Realty has run the count since 2006, and the firm bills it as required reading for sellers, developers, banks and funds.

That method distinguishes it from the other report often cited in the same breath. The quarterly Douglas Elliman market reports, prepared by the appraisal firm Miller Samuel, measure closed sales across the entire market — median price, average price, inventory, days on market — for Manhattan and Brooklyn. Elliman/Miller Samuel is the broad, lagging benchmark; Olshan is the narrow, real-time luxury pulse. Conflating the two is a common error.

The pied-à-terre question

The May reading landed in the middle of a political debate over a pied-à-terre tax — a proposed surcharge on high-value New York homes that are not the owner’s primary residence. The concept, long floated in Albany, gained fresh momentum under Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who took office in January 2026 on an affordability platform. Some brokers and business leaders have warned that such a tax would chase wealthy part-time owners out of the city.

Olshan’s own numbers cut against that warning, at least so far. “The last four weeks demonstrates that an impending pied-à-terre tax has had no effect on the luxury market in Manhattan,” Donna Olshan, the firm’s president, said in her report on the period. Manhattan logged 183 contracts at $4 million and up across the full month of May 2026 — the second-best May in the report’s history, behind only the post-pandemic surge of 2021.

No exodus, so far

The resilience tracks with what brokers reported after the November 2025 election. Despite predictions that a Mamdani win would trigger a “millionaire exodus,” luxury contract activity through late 2025 and into 2026 ran at or above the prior year, with marquee resales — including units at the Aman New York — leading the high end into the new year.

Important caveats apply. The pied-à-terre tax remained a proposal, not law, as of mid-2026; a tracker of contracts at a single price threshold says nothing about the broader rental or stabilized market; and luxury demand can turn quickly on interest rates and equity markets. But on the evidence in hand, the warnings of a luxury flight had not materialized.

Verification

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Olshan report actually measure?
It is a weekly tally of every contract signed in Manhattan for residential property asking $4 million or more — condos, co-ops, condops and townhouses. It counts signed contracts (deals struck), not closed sales, so it is a forward-looking read on the top of the market. Olshan Realty has published it since 2006.
How is that different from the Douglas Elliman / Miller Samuel report?
The Elliman reports, prepared by appraisal firm Miller Samuel, are quarterly and measure closed sales across the whole Manhattan and Brooklyn markets — median and average prices, inventory and days on market. Olshan is weekly and narrow (luxury contracts only). One is a broad closed-sale benchmark; the other is a real-time luxury pulse.
What is the pied-à-terre tax?
A proposed surcharge on high-value New York homes that are not the owner's primary residence — aimed at part-time owners and investors. Versions have circulated in Albany for years; the idea regained attention under Mayor Zohran Mamdani's affordability agenda. As of mid-2026 it was a proposal, not enacted law.
Did Mamdani's election scare off luxury buyers?
The data so far says no. Olshan's contract counts in late 2025 and into 2026 ran at or above the prior year, and brokers reported no measurable 'millionaire exodus' after the November 2025 election.